Three divergences between the MACD and the supply and demand indicator exist; Binance may be strongest.
Best Chart Signals · August 2026 · 5 min read
A bit of background on BNB
Binance Coin — ticker BNB — was launched in 2017 as the native token of the Binance exchange. Binance went on to become the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world by trading volume, and BNB grew with it. Originally it gave holders a discount on trading fees, but its use has expanded significantly since — it now powers the BNB Chain, a blockchain network used for decentralized applications, smart contracts and token issuance.
What makes BNB different from most crypto assets is its relative stability. While Solana or smaller altcoins can swing 30 to 50 percent, BNB tends to move more steadily. It is closely tied to the health of Binance, which processes billions of dollars in trades daily, providing steady demand. This lower volatility makes analysis of supply and demand clearer, with a better noise-to-signal ratio than in speculative assets.
The chart and what it shows
The weekly chart below shows two indicators beneath the price candles. The top indicator is the MACD. The bottom indicator is my own supply and demand indicator, which measures the balance between buying and selling pressure directly rather than deriving it from price alone. The key to reading this chart is not what either indicator does in isolation — it is how they diverge from each other.
“When the MACD drops well below its center line but the supply and demand indicator barely moves below its center line, it means the bearish momentum picture is not being confirmed by genuine selling pressure. Demand is holding up beneath the surface — and that is where the opportunity lies.”
October 2023 — the first divergence
In October 2023 the MACD dropped well below its center line — a reading that on its own looks bearish and would have concerned most traders. But the supply and demand indicator in the lower panel told a very different story. It didn’t drop as much below its own center line and recovered quickly. The divergence between the two was significant: the MACD was reflecting price weakness and negative momentum, but the underlying balance between buyers and sellers was not deteriorating anything like as much as the MACD suggested. Demand was quietly absorbing the selling.
This kind of setup — where the MACD looks weak but the supply and demand picture holds up — has a high probability of resolving to the upside. BNB did exactly that, rallying strongly from that point through 2024 and into 2025, eventually reaching its highs in late 2025.
May 2024 to November 2025 — the warning divergence
Between May 2024 and November 2025 a longer and more telling divergence developed. The blue trendlines drawn across both indicators tell the story clearly. The MACD was making higher highs over this period — momentum looked strong, price was rising, and on the surface everything appeared positive. But the supply and demand indicator was making lower highs over the same period. The two were moving in opposite directions.
That is a classic warning sign. The rally on Binance was running on diminishing underlying demand. Distribution was quietly building beneath the surface even as the MACD and the price painted an optimistic picture. This divergence was warning that the rally was running out of fuel.
January 2025 — the sell
By January 2025 the picture was clear. Despite the price being near its highs, the supply and demand indicator had only barely made it back above its signal line — there was no conviction in the buying pressure at those elevated levels. Combined with the longer divergence between the two indicators, this was a strong signal that the risk of holding outweighed the potential reward. BNB peaked shortly after and pulled back significantly from its highs.
Now — a third divergence, and possibly the strongest
The current setup is the one worth paying attention to. The MACD has now dropped a long way below its zero line — further than it did in October 2023, and the reading looks deeply negative. But the supply and demand indicator has barely moved below its zero line. The divergence between the two is actually wider now than it was in the 2023 setup.
What this is telling us is that while the MACD is painting a bearish picture, genuine selling pressure — as measured by the supply and demand indicator — is not present to anywhere near the same degree. Supply, which drove the price down from the 2025 highs, appears to be drying up. Demand is beginning to re-establish itself beneath the price action. That is what the early stages of accumulation look like before it becomes visible in the price itself.
This does not mean BNB will immediately reverse and rally strongly. Accumulation takes time and the precise timing of a breakout is never certain. But the combination of the deeply negative MACD and the barely-negative supply and demand indicator is the same pattern that preceded the strong rally from October 2023 — only more pronounced. That makes it worth watching closely.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All trading and investment carries risk. Do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
More analysis on the blog
This kind of supply and demand read is what the analysis on this site is based on — applied to stocks, crypto and the broader market every week.Read more